Life expectancy rises grind to a virtual halt… but what does this mean for pensions and savings? By Tony Watts OBE

29th June 2018 by RetireEasy





For years now, writers in the later life arena like myself have been talking about the never-ending rise in life expectancy. For years there was a golden rule: for every six years that passed, life expectancy rose by a further year. It was akin to “buy six, get one free”.

There seemed no end in sight: we were all heading towards a world where most of would live to 100 and beyond.

And that certainty has played a big part in Government thinking around moving the State Pension age. It has also fed into the actuarial figures that govern annuity payouts and private pensions.

For those who don’t fancy the prospect of living their last years in poverty, it has fuelled the trend to conserve more in our retirement savings than we will ever use. A recent report by the Institute of Fiscal Studies concluded that many of us are leaving two thirds of our wealth untapped by the time of our demise: fine if you prefer playing it safe or your objective is to pass your wealth onto future generations; not such a great move if you want to enjoy your retirement to the full.

But the landscape has suddenly changed. A new report by the Office of National Statistics* has drawn together the conclusions of a number of studies and found that the inexorable rise in life expectancy pretty much ground to a virtual halt in 2010.

In their words: “Between 2011 to 2013, and 2014 to 2016, only 26 local authorities showed any statistically significant increase in life expectancy for men, and only 17 showed any improvement for women. This compares with 203 and 128 local authorities respectively showing a significant increase in the equivalent period 10 years earlier.”

Why? One factor could be that it seems more of us are dying earlier than expected, and there are plenty of possibilities for why that might be happening. Some of the excess winter death figures might provide part of the answer – but as they yoyo up and down (18,200 in 2013/14, 43,900 in 2014/5 and 24,300 in 2015/16) it’s hard to draw meaningful conclusions.

Looking forward, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that future generations (despite, or perhaps because of, rising prosperity) won’t live as long as previous ones, mainly due to issues around poor diet and less exercise.

But what might this mean for you…?

First of all, it has to be said that averages are just that: averages. The huge discrepancies between the life expectancy of someone from a poor background living in a northern industrial town is massively different from that of someone in a leafy southern counties suburb or village.

How we live our lives as individuals will also play a big part – exercise, diet, stress levels, etcetera. Plus, there is also the factor over which we have no control: our genes.

However, it does all point to a situation where – perhaps – as a society we aren’t all going to live quite as long as we have all been assuming.

That strengthens the argument against continuing to raise the State Pension Age – especially for those who live in places or have jobs that indicate a shorter life expectancy.

It may help to persuade pension trustees to loosen the purse strings slightly – but don’t hold your breath on that!

It could give you a good bargaining chip to negotiate a better annuity rate – especially if you abode in one of the aforementioned northern towns!

It also means that perhaps we should all look carefully at how long we need to support ourselves in retirement.

Some vital statistics…

Currently, if we reach 65 then (on average!) we can expect to live around another 20 years, with women living one year longer than men. That’s still a long time to support ourselves.

There is also another important factor to take into account: just how healthy and independent will we be in the years between retirement and death? That for instance, will determine whether we will need to pay for care.

At present, the figures vary enormously depending on where you live, but (again on average) according to the ONS, between 2012 and 2014, males at birth in England could expect to spend a higher proportion (79.7%) of their remaining lives in “Good” health, compared with females (76.9%) – about 15 years for each plus five years when our health is not so good.

So, if you’re an average person and have savings above £23,500, expect to fund your care for at least five years of your life.

How should you plan your retirement finances?

Everyone’s circumstances will be different, but the new findings should make all of us (at the very least) relook at our assumptions on how we fund our retirement years.

Using the RetireEasy LifePlan gives you a head start here, because (with the Classic and Premium versions) you can play out as many different scenarios as you think of, each showing the impact on your finances depending on how many years you expect to live, how much you will need to put aside to fund your care and so on.

That may help you determine whether you should cut back your spending, save more, stay in work for longer than you had planned…or if you could even spend out a little more.

Having oversight and control of your finances will make a big difference to making the very most of your retirement year.

 



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